Description

This analysis provides a forecast of LPT prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-01-26 7.809475 9.225443 10.785311 12.625757 14.732147 17.061742 19.827108
2025-02-02 5.935860 7.823766 10.099400 13.021596 16.649242 20.977639 26.503095
2025-02-09 4.825193 6.968369 9.750095 13.573468 18.632318 25.030408 33.657238
2025-02-16 3.865693 6.060748 9.103201 13.539769 19.738289 27.970256 39.582793
2025-02-23 3.054746 5.173837 8.295703 13.100488 20.149290 29.923346 44.265261
2025-03-02 2.419989 4.412441 7.521662 12.552858 20.270702 31.397262 48.307333
2025-03-09 2.045314 3.984686 7.169877 12.555070 21.140460 33.935602 53.966849
2025-03-16 1.753620 3.638227 6.885904 12.604662 22.049399 36.555330 59.878015
2025-03-23 1.502593 3.314946 6.586706 12.575962 22.802504 38.957261 65.580415
2025-03-30 1.229506 2.895757 6.054719 12.075799 22.714990 40.010091 69.232912
2025-04-06 1.065872 2.662117 5.822940 12.064968 23.427639 42.359949 75.038548
2025-04-13 0.920212 2.437080 5.572821 11.983773 23.995050 44.487685 80.586564
2025-04-20 0.864454 2.405757 5.709029 12.659521 25.993760 49.187514 90.724600
2025-04-27 0.798542 2.338712 5.763382 13.181999 27.756610 53.601082 100.649153
2025-05-04 0.745283 2.291882 5.853020 13.780933 29.704925 58.450565 111.575306
2025-05-11 0.652091 2.123606 5.652398 13.759735 30.461923 61.229936 119.070165
2025-05-18 0.545153 1.893208 5.275062 13.318227 30.351227 62.423402 123.829637
2025-05-25 0.448806 1.667318 4.870558 12.763901 29.954089 63.044691 127.574207
2025-06-01 0.395391 1.554876 4.724317 12.766523 30.686958 65.808150 135.321778
2025-06-08 0.350966 1.459242 4.605584 12.816956 31.518423 68.798991 143.626704
2025-06-15 0.308820 1.359828 4.461017 12.787876 32.172314 71.475070 151.465111
2025-06-22 0.255103 1.204083 4.136644 12.280414 31.732951 71.962432 155.171093
2025-06-29 0.225169 1.125938 4.017236 12.269429 32.394675 74.681555 163.280117